Bhubaneswar: The cyclone season has started as March to May is considered the prime cyclone season for the Indian seas. The Bay of Bengal could host a cyclonic storm this month with chances of a cyclonic circulation forming over the southeast Bay of Bengal around March 20.
The system could intensify and reach the northern Bay of Bengal. However, forecasts regarding its level of intensification and the chances of cyclone formation had not yet been made. The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) had not yet made an official forecast in this regard.
However, IMD in its ‘North Indian Ocean Extended Range Outlook’ published on March 10 had stated that some models like IMD GFS, ECMWF, ECMWF together and NCEP GFS indicate cyclonic circulation over the central southern parts of the bay of Bengal by March 16. .
Favorable MJO and sea conditions and various guidance patterns indicate the development of cyclonic circulation over central parts of the southern Bay of Bengal, leading to increased convective activity over the region, the agency said.
Meteorological expert Surendranath Pasupalak said the NCEP GFS model indicated chances of the system changing direction possible and it may not hit the Indian coast. The country has not experienced any cyclones in March in recent years. However, climate change could cause the system to shift towards the Indian coast, he said, adding that a clear picture of the system will present itself around March 20.
Notably, the Bay of Bengal has hosted up to six cyclonic storms in the month of March since 1901. Similarly, such storms in April usually head towards Myanmar and Bangladesh. However, the storms also hit the Indian coastline from Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh to Odisha and West Bengal.